February 28, 2017
You often hear academics and traders say: "all trading strategies fail over time". They don't provide proof but will provide examples to make their point. And usually, for the examples they present, I agree, those strategies should fail. It is as if their selected trading strategies were designed to fail in the first place, and therefore, no one should be surprised if eventually, they do fail.
There are exceptions, but I do not see them as such. I view them as better strategy designs. They don't need to be elaborate or complicated. But, they don't need to be simple, either. However, they will have to adhere to common sense and the math of the game.
February 21, 2017
The stock market game is played under uncertainty. You are not totally certain of what the future may bring. However, if you take a long term view of things, you could look for "stuff" that does make sense, and might most assuredly continue in the future.
I do expect, with a very high probability, that tomorrow there will be more people on the planet. I can not be certain on a day to day basis, but I do know I will be right almost every day of the year since it will require a huge disaster for that statement not to hold. And those "events" do not happen every day.