October 10th, 2016

Prediction Dilemma

The HTML file below tries to elaborate on the predictability, not of stock price movements, but mostly on portfolio performance outcomes. It tries to do this using only two numbers, one of which is just a trade counter.

The objective being to show that those two numbers which characterize a trading strategy can add some understanding of a strategy's long term goals. As if giving the ability to make napkin estimates of where a portfolio might be some 20+ years down the line, thereby providing a reasonable guesstimate.

This document is again offered in HTML due to the math formulas. One does not need the math to understand the message. 

HTML file:            Prediction Dilemma

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Related articles part of this series, as they were written: 

The Payoff Matrix 

The Game Inside

Strategy Design Defects

Strategy Enhancers 

Trade Dectection 

Stock Trading Decisions 


Created... October 10th, 2016 © Guy R. Fleury. All rights reserved. 

Alpha Project