October 10, 2016

The HTML file below tries to elaborate on the predictability, not of stock price movements, but mostly on portfolio performance outcomes. It tries to do this using only two numbers, one of which is just a trade counter.

The objective is to show that those two numbers that characterize a trading strategy can add some understanding of a strategy's long-term goals. As if giving the ability to make napkin estimates of where a portfolio might be some 20+ years down the line, thereby providing a reasonable guesstimate.

This document is again offered in HTML due to the math formulas. One does not need the math to understand the message. 

HTML file:            Prediction Dilemma


Related articles part of this series, as they were written: 

The Payoff Matrix

The Game Inside

Strategy Design Defects

Strategy Enhancers 

Trade Detection 

Stock Trading Decisions 

Created... October 10, 2016,    © Guy R. Fleury. All rights reserved.